Navigating Coronavirus — July 16

In today’s email, we have new Navigator polling on Americans’ growing concerns about coronavirus — as the number who say the worst is yet to come hits its highest mark in three months, at the same time the number saying Trump isn’t doing enough hit a record high. We also look at Trump’s ongoing war with the nation’s top health expert, and the White House’s tone-deaf and out-of-touch posture on unemployment benefits as we await the new unemployment report this morning.

Read on for today’s Navigating Coronavirus…

It’s been 140 days since President Trump said we’d soon have zero cases in the U.S. We now have 3.6 million cases and more than 140,000 deaths.

TOP TREND

• As Americans grow more cautious about reopening and supportive of wearing masks, they are increasingly blaming Trump for rising cases. 62% now say Trump is at least somewhat responsible for the rise in cases, up 5 points in two weeks — and in the last month, the share of Americans identifying as pro-mask has gone up 11 points while expressing caution about reopening has gone up 7 points.

THE LATEST

Message guidance on the latest developments with President Trump’s handling of the crisis.

1. INSTEAD OF FIGHTING THE VIRUS, TRUMP IS FIGHTING WITH THE NATION’S TOP HEALTH EXPERT — AS THE PANDEMIC SPINS OUT OF CONTROL.

As coronavirus spreads so fast that nearly two dozen states have paused or reversed reopening plans, Trump has given up on fighting the virus — and is making things worse by picking fights with Dr. Fauci and threatening to cut school funding if kids aren’t forced back into harm’s way.

• NYT: “Total Cases in the U.S. Hit 3.5 Million; Officials Scramble to Add Restrictions”
• NEW MODEL >> The projected death toll by November 1 is now 224,089 — up 15,000+ from a week ago.
• LA Times: “As Trump tries to separate himself from Navarro’s attack on Fauci, a WH source tells us that POTUS himself approved it: ‘Not only was he authorized by Trump — he was encouraged.’”
• Washington Post: “Trump administration, congressional Republicans eye tying school aid to reopening in next funding bill”
• “Some White House officials are pushing for conditioning the aid on schools reopening partly or fully”

This is the reality that Trump is refusing to address:

• TEXAS >> “COVID-19 deaths straining Dallas County medical examiner’s morgue capacity”
• FLORIDA >> “Dozens of Florida hospital ICUs reach capacity as coronavirus cases surge”
• KANSAS >> “Kansas’ largest city worries about running short of ICU beds”
• ARIZONA >> “The morgue in Phoenix was filling up with bodies so fast officials are trucking in refrigerated trailers to store more corpses.”
• RIGHT UNDER HIS NOSE >> “Federal stockpile is thin amid coronavirus surge, internal documents show”

Americans are taking notice.

• Q Poll >> “62% of registered voters say President Trump is hurting efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus, compared to 31% who say he’s helping”

**NEW** NAVIGATOR TRACKING NUMBERS . . .

TODAY’S POLLING DECK >> HERE

FULL TOPLINES >> HERE

• Americans are increasingly personally impacted by the virus, as fears that it will get worse go up. The number saying the worst is yet to come (63%) hit its highest point in three months, as more than 4 in 10 Americans now also say they know someone infected.

• In a rebuke of Trump’s rush to reopen before it was safe, a majority of Americans now want to reverse reopenings and institute more aggressive social distancing measures. The number of Americans who want more aggressive social distancing has gone up 25 points in just five weeks.

• Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of coronavirus. The number who say Trump is “not doing enough” has hit a record high in our tracking, at 61%, as 6 in 10 now say Trump’s mistakes made this crisis worse.

• As he and his team fight with Dr. Fauci, Americans say he is ignoring experts and are concerned about it. His ignorance of experts remains the top concern about his behavior that Americans have.

ECONOMIC CRISIS IN CONTEXT

The latest on how the economic crisis sparked by coronavirus is being fueled by President Trump’s actions and years of conservative economic policies, focusing today on this morning’s unemployment report.

This morning, we will hear the latest report of workers filing for unemployment as coronavirus surges across the country — and Trump is continuing his push to cut their incomes.

• Trump’s economic advisors are saying that “the single most important thing we have to do going forward is stop the $600 a week [unemployment] payments” — but actual economists understand that this would be devastating for the economy.
• One economist estimates that even scaling the benefits back, as the White House is now offering, would cost between 600,000 and 1.1 million jobs, result in an 8% cut to GDP, and wipe out up to 75% of unemployed workers’ income.
• And yet … while workers are losing jobs, income, and health insurance, the Trump administration’s top canned bean salesperson has a bold new suggestion: Just “try something new.”

While workers stare down a massive cut to their income in less than two weeks, Trump’s top Senate ally is dragging his feet and making a lapse in benefits a near-certainty.

• Trump and his allies may think this is good politics for them, but their political games are already having real consequences as a lapse looks increasingly unavoidable.
• But here is what people across the country are saying — and pressure like this is only going to increase: “Florida couple: U.S. Senate needs to extend federal unemployment benefit”
• NEW FROM NAVIGATOR POLL >> Support for extension of expanded benefits remains high: 7 in 10 want Congress to act. (67% support / just 24% oppose)
• This aligns with other recent polling, including from Groundwork Action/Data for Progress, which also found 7 in 10 voters support extending unemployment benefits, including 69% of independents and 52% of Republicans.

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Navigating Coronavirus is a joint project of Governing for Impact, Groundwork Collaborative, The Hub Project, and Navigator Research.

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